Canada wants to double its electricity supply by 2050. That target was confirmed in the federal National Electricity Strategy back in May 2026, and the procurement activity already underway in Ontario, Quebec, and BC makes it clear that this isn't just policy aspiration. The projects are really happening, and the demand driving these projects isn't going anywhere.
What gets less attention is what the workforce picture looks like for these projects. Spoiler alert... it's not moving in the same direction.
The People Who Built This Industry Are Leaving It
The federal government's own data, confirmed in a November 2024 parliamentary committee snapshot, projects that 700,000 skilled tradespeople will retire between 2019 and 2028. The workers leaving right now are the ones who started their careers in the 80s and 90s, and are the ones with the most field experience available. In Ontario, at least one in three tradespeople and apprentices is currently 55 or older.
BuildForce Canada also released its national 10-year construction forecast in July 2026. It projects the industry will need to hire 306,200 workers by 2034 to keep pace with retirements and growing demand. Even if recruitment goes well, the industry is still expected to come up short nationally, with Ontario's projected shortfall reaching 52,000 on its own.
These numbers cover construction broadly, but that's the point. Solar installers are included in this which puts our industry at risk as well.
The Apprenticeship Picture Can Be Misleading
On the surface, the training pipeline looks healthy. Apprenticeship registrations hit a record high in 2024, with 101,541 new registrations across Canada, up nearly 6% from the year before. That's a real and genuinely encouraging trend.
The certification numbers, however, are a different story. Only 46,971 apprentices actually became certified that same year, a figure that barely changed from 2023 and is still nearly 10% below where it was before the pandemic according to Statistics Canada.
Registrations are climbing and the certifications are not. An apprentice who doesn't certify doesn't fill a much-needed journeyperson role, they don't supervise new apprentices, and they don't end up passing on experience when they hang up their tools.
Everyone Is Competing For The Same Electricians
The trades most relevant to solar, electricians especially, are also the ones under pressure from every direction at once. Grid upgrades, data centre construction, EV charging infrastructure, residential solar, they all draw from the same pool of licensed electrical workers. As the clean energy build-out scales up across Canada, so does the competition for the people who can actually do the work.
Electricity Human Resources Canada projected in 2023 that the electricity sector alone would need close to 28,000 new workers by 2028. That figure has since been referenced in NRCan's own National Electricity Strategy.
Under a net-zero scenario, which Canada is aiming for, the workforce is expected to grow from 500,000 in 2025 to 2.7 million by 2050. The infrastructure to train and certify that many workers simply does not exist yet.
What This Means For Installer Businesses
There are two things that matter for anyone running an installation company right now: good hiring and keeping current talent. Finding certified tradespeople with real solar experience is already difficult, so hiring the right ones that are willing to stay with you is extremely important. Keeping the people you already have might be even more important as other companies are searching for the best talent.
Try your best to treat your crews as the most important asset that you have. Through training, clear advancement, and running a company people want to stay at, you could be building a team to sustain you through the labour shortage.
If you want to talk through what this could look like for your business, we would love to connect.